Bangladesh Elections

Fall of Awami League

An Election Analysis

Prof. Ajoy Roy

A landslide victory of Bangladesh National Party (BNP) & 4-Party alliance led by Begum Khaleda in the general election of Bangladesh held on October 1, 2001not only surprised common men but political Pundits equally.

The elements that led to debacle of AL are, according to the 4-party alliance and their supporters:

1. Awami League (AL) established a reign of terror in the country. They not only failed to repress it; they cultivated and nourished it. Their Cadre, under the protection of the top leadership, indulged in anti social activities like collecting doles from business communities and shopkeepers, small or big, snatching of personal belongings of the passersby from the street, forcible occupation establishments etc.

2. Rule of AL of last 5 years is synonymous with misrule, corruption, inefficiency, inaction, and favoritism. During their rule, economic activities stand still, no new industries are set up, education particularly Madrasa education ruined.

3. AL is an enemy of Allah, Rasul & Islam, so they should not be allowed to come to power second time.

4. Under the Awami rule of last five years, the Country has drifted from the path of Islam, so in no way they should be returned to power.

5. If re-elected, AL would turn the Country into a non-Islamic State, like Turkey- where Namaz, Roza, Azan and other Islamic practices are prohibited. As a result non-Muslim influences would be prevalent on the society- Muslims will be ruled by non-Muslims and Kaffirs.

6. If once again put in power, AL will make the country a satellite state of India like Bhutan and Sikim. Shaikh Hasina is a Muslim only by name, - she is worst than his father Shaikh Mujibur Rahman.

The daily Sangbad in its 2 October issue summarizes the cause of AL fall and identified that chief cause that brought down AL so miserably is the activities of star terrorists, Godfather and their associates- which overshadowed very good works and remarkable achievements of the past Government.

Is there any Indication or prediction of such AL debacle?

Apparently the electorate believed these allegations, and they silently but decisively gave their overwhelming verdict in favour of 4-party alliance- which the alliance called a 'ballot-revolution' in silence. On paper, it is really a revolution. Even in the worst days of Al, either during the terrible regime of General Zia, or of General Ershad Awami league did cut such a sorry figure. It is strange and very difficult to accept the result on its face value. Either during last 5 years when BNP led opposition was in the movement trying to topple the AL Government by extra democratic way, or during the last two and half months the 4-pary alliance could generate mass upsurge in their favour as has been reflected in the election result. It is also true that apparently election was held, by and large in peaceful atmosphere; and attendance of voters is quite high, more than 705. If such a large scale mass swinging towards BNP led 4-party alliance is fact then its effect would have been felt in the public and Hartal and other extra parliamentary movement on the streets. It was quite obvious that movement of toppling AL totally failed. The people were disgusted with their negative politics of 5-years. As an opposition party they miserably failed to deliver goods to the public. Even then the 4 party alliance won the election with more than two-third majority.

It is really a paradox. There is no such indication that such a landslide victory is awaiting for the alliance. Each and every article, opinions of the political analysts predicted a keen contest, and some expressed their fear of hung parliament. I quote from three such reports of pre-election survey conducted by private bodies.

1. 1. A survey was conducted on 10,77 samples conducted by a private election monitoring agent (Daily Sangbad reports on 26. 09. 01). The report predicted a keenly contested election with slight tilt to Awami League. But no party will get absolute majority.
   2. 55% opined that AL governed the country better than the last Governments; they are more capable to govern than other parties.
   3. 96% opined that collaborators and rajakars must not be elected.
2. 
   Another survey report (published in Sangbad on 28. 09. 01) conducted between 15 - 16 September on 11, 027 samples collected from 35 districts predicted the following result:
   

   AL will get seats	:	132
   BNP	:	123
   Jatiya Party (Ershad)	:	22
   Jamat	:	3
   Others	:	20

3. 
   Sangbad themselves published ( Sangbad 29. 09. 01) just two days before the election a report on probable election result based on their reports collected from various parts of the country sent by their correspondents & other sources. According their assessment there is no possibility that a single party would be getting absolute majority for forming a government alone. The report posed a question:

PLUS MINUS AL-BNP ? THIRD FACTOR !

According to this report both BNP and AL has some reserved safe seats almost equal number. It assessed :

(a)	AL has safe seats	:	100
(b)	BNP	:
(c)	Keenly contested seats	:	100
(d)	Keenly contested seats (These numbers will play deciding factor)	:	60 - 70
(e)	out of rest 30-40 seats JP (Ershad ) will bag	:	20

The report further predicted:

If it is not a paradox, then where lies the explanation? Is it the simple arithmetic ? Back in April, one Mr. Nazim Kamran Choudhury in his two long articles published by the Daily Star predicted a possible two-third victory on the basis of arithmetical calculations. Let us have a glance on 1996 Election position of different political parties as tabulated below:

Table 1 : Election 1996

The table shows that if we add up the percentage of votes of BNP and Jamat, it exceeds significantly that of AL 42.22% as against 37.44. To it if JP percentage is added it becomes 58.62. If this electorate distribution is repeated in 2001, there is no reason why BNP led 4-party alliance will not get two-third majority. Based on this arithmetic model Kamran Choudhury made his prediction. He showed in his articles of April that how he made this prediction: he added up the votes of the BNP, Jamat, and undivided JP in each constituency and showed how many seats could be won by such an anti-AL alliance if they vote for a single candidate. This is a forewarning to Awami League Election strategy makers, and they should have heeded to the arithmetic exercise made by Kamran Choudhury. In another recent article by Kamran Choudhury on October 6 in Daily Star, he stressed how his prediction comes true. I doubt if the AL election strategists have taken serious note of it, or even seen the analysis. On the other hand BNP took the arithmetic model very seriously. Thanks to their election strategists they started working seriously to implement the model to reality. Formation of 4-pary alliance, then after the assumption of Caretaker Government a new alliance was successfully formed- and two new elements in the alliance are CA and CEE.

Shaikh Hasina, AL Chief rejects Election Result:

Herein comes AL's allegation that the electorate did come to cast their votes with great enthusiasm. But their aspiration has not been reflected in the election result. The real verdict of the people has been replaced by skillfully manipulated result giving an overwhelming majority in favour of BNP led 4-party alliance. This is a previously made 'election blue print result'- termed by Shaikh Hasina. This has been prepared by the Care Taker Government led by Mr. Latifur Rahman in collusion with the CEC - alleged the erstwhile Prime Minister. It was well thought, skillfully prepared, and so perfectly executed that it is next to impossible to make people believe that the election result is a fake one, nor it would be easy to prove Shaik Hasina's allegations.

Obviously CEC & Chief Adviser would out right reject the allegations, and in fact they have. So question of re-election or serious investigation of the charges made by AL Chief does not arise; it will receive very little attention either from the Government or Election Commission. Because both these institutions are happy beyond limit of their success of putting a pro-Islamic alliance to power. And they have made no hide of their pleasures. The Retired Chief Justice has categorically and proudly remarked " I am a justice, I do not know what is called 'fine manipulation' or 'crude manipulation' . What I thought best in my judgement, I did it for the sake of holding free and fair election. And thousands Sukriah to Almighty Allah, that by the grace of Allah we completed our trusted mission." And what is this trusted mission - a thousand-dollar question indeed !

Violence and Violence: Before & After AL Governance

Before we take up this question, analyze the charges of Shaikh Hasina and role of the retired Chief Justice, let us look back to the conditions obtaining in the country just before Shaikh Hasina relinquished her power after the successful completion of her tenure as Prime Minister, and after.

1. Hartal became frequently occurring natural phenomena. Activists both of pro-Hartal and anti-Hartal indulged in terrorist activities. Most active armed group has been Shibir cadres, a pro Jamat so called student organization. It is in fact an armed cadre of youths of Jamat. Neither the Chatra Dal nor the Chatra League is far behind from each other in terrorist activities. Not necessarily anti-social elements entirely belonged to Chatra league-, nor they entirely belonged to Chatra Dal, the anti-socials formed a class of themselves. They are equally patronized by political parties, businessmen, etc. for their own interest. Godfather cult is not the monopoly of AL as has been alleged by 4-part alliance. The BNP, Jamat cultivated, nourished and flourished the terrorism, mastanism, and cult of patronizing goondas and terrorists for the their political will and support. In fact mastanism is the political culture of all big parties. No party can claim that it is free from it.

2. We all remember three major terrorist activities during the last phase of AL regime:
   

   (I) Severe bomb blasts killing a large number of common people in Ramna Uddan on the day of Bangla New year (14th April), the most heinous crime committed against the common people by the anti socials. This event has struck at the very concept of our cultural identity- 'Bngalitwa' (Bengali Nationalism), a concept unpalatable both to Jamat - BNP' political philosophy.

   
   

   (II) Unexpected and uncalled for bomb blasts in a Platen Maiden meeting of Communist Party of Bangladesh (CPB), a secular party with long tradition of struggle for common peoples aspiration, a party fought for our independence in war of liberation in 1971.

   
   

   (III) Lastly a major bomb blasts took at the Awami league office at Narayangang killing and wounding large number of workers of AL.




3. It is needless to say that the terrorists involved in these events definitely belong to political organizations representing Fundamentalism who opposed to our war of liberation and or political parties patronizing these organizations. There is little doubt that these elements belong to Jamat, and 4-party alliance led by Begum Khaleda. As such, Begum Saheba cannot shrug off her responsibility in those events. Instead the BNP leader categorically said many a times that these acts are the acts of AL. Can one believe it. But our electorate believes whatever comes off from the mouth of the BNP leader. The failure of Awami League Government is that they utterly failed to bring the culprits to justice with strong hand. Look at the pattern of attack, first they attacked on a cultural function organized by a well known cultural forum " Chhayanot"- a organization which is devoted to awakening Banglai identity, then a secular democratic party, - pro liberation political party, and finally the strongest party AL which successfully led our war of liberation- a party which is openly vowed to establish a secular political culture in our political system. The objective and motive of the terrorists and their godfathers are clear and significantly indicative.

Now let us look back to regime of the caretaker Government of Latifur Rahman. They vowed to recover illegal weapons, but totally failed; instead they flushed out the armed cadres of AL, leaving the field free for BNP-Jamat cadres. The caretaker Government in every district, upazilla, and remotest parts of the country created this congenial condition in favour of BNP_Jamat cadres. Every day clashes took place every where in the country- and our law enforcing agencies failed to deter it, prevent it, and in many places they encouraged it if it were aimed at minority communities or Awami League workers. Following table will speak for itself atmosphere has been prevailing just before the Election Day:

The list is no way complete. I have only put here major events from my own diary. Most of these events are directed against minority communities and/or AL workers. Given below some major events directed against minority community:

These are only few examples out of innumerable cases of minority torture relentlessly carried out by the 4-part alliance activists. But Caretaker Government either failed to do anything to deter these activists or intentionally encouraged these activities for their ill motive to succeed.

Out of innumerable violence that were encouraged or allowed to carry on three major ones are noted below (all three directed against AL):

Judge the performance of Caretaker Government in checking violence with all their resources of Police Force, BDR, Ansars, and Armed forces at their disposal. The Caretaker Government utterly failed to recover legal or illegal arms from the miscreants- all their activities have been directed against Awami leaguers, and their supporters. No body is denying the anti-social activities and mastanism carried on by the Awami activists including some top leaders like Zainal Hazari or Hazi Selim. But the roles of Sabir Hosain Khoka or Mirza Abbas or VP Zainal are equally condemnable. But this is no excuse that AL leadership failed to eradicate the anti social elements from their part.

Attributes of the Caretaker Government & its Chief adviser- Justice Latifur Rahman:

It all began with the appointment of Mr. M. A. Sayeed as Chief Election Commissioner. A man from Gopalganj, an ex civil servant was chosen by the AL Government, proved to be a boomerang to AL. During and after his appointment BNP rejected him, and continued their Hartal for removal of Mr. Sayeed from the post. BNP at one stage threatened that if he is not removed, they will boycott the election alleging that as he is an pro AL element as under his care no fare election could be held.

As regards Justice Latifur Rahman, an impression has been created that he is a pro-liberation element, and so if he becomes the Chief Justice and retires before the AL government completes its tenure, naturally he would become the Chief Adviser of the coming Care Taker Government. BNP apprehended this very much, so their wholehearted Hartal oriented movement was directed against the AL Government to topple them before Latifur Rahman completes his tenure as Chief Justice. If this could be achieved, then Retired Chief Justice Mustafa Kamal would become Chief Adviser. Justice Kamal has been projected as conservative pro-BNP_JMAT element. Both AL & BNP were aware of this fact. But much to the dismay of BNP, they failed to achieve their objective. Chief justice Latifur Rahman successfully retired before the completion of AL tenure much to the delight of AL supporters.

Latifur Rahman is a shrewd and clever man; he could successfully camouflage his real identity and intention. Before he becomes Chief Justice, he cunningly did all his best to spread the rumor that he is a PRO-AL-PRO-Liberation element. This he confirmed by his deed, - he placed wreath before the portrait of Bangabandhu at the Bangabandhu Museum at Road # 32 after he assumed the post of Chief Justice; as a Chief Justice he visited Tungipara to offer fatehah at the Mazar of Bangabandhu Shaikh Mujibur Rahman; he did not fail to place wreath at the alter of Sahid Minar on 21st February, no Justice has done before. The Chief Justice also posed himself that he has been doing his best to hasten the trial of Bangabandhu murder case at the high court. In this way, by showing superficial posture as pro-AL-pro-liberation element he could win the confidence at the highest level of AL leadership. Alas! Justice has outwitted ALs. Even on the day of oath taking ceremony, AL Chief was found to be extremely satisfied and jubilant that a trusted person has been placed in the most key position that will conduct the forthcoming general election. On the other hand, Begum Khaleda boycotted the ceremony showing her discourtesy and indignation about the appointment. She further declared that if needed be she will continue her Hartal and Mass movement against the 'Caretaker Government' and even threatened to boycott the coming election if some positive steps are not taken as desired by them. These desires were then transmitted to the Chief Adviser and successfully implemented by the Justice to the extreme jubilation and satisfaction of the 4-party alliance.

Real Face of CA Exposed or unveiled

After assuming power, the Chief Adviser threw away his camouflage immediately and exposed his true face. He said he has been working for the last 6-months on a scheme to make a mechanism how to ensure free and fair election. His Scheme presupposes:

What conspired between CA, CEE, and Leaders of 4-party alliance, we would never know. But it became obvious with in a few days that the Caretaker Government is neither neutral nor non-patty Government. It has a definite tilt and leaning towards 4-party alliance. The Caretaker Government. They started striking at the root of the pro-liberation forces in the administration- and within a month completed the task - made them ineffective by shunting them to insignificant posts replacing the important and significant posts that matters in election procedure by the pro-Jamat or pro-BNP elements, All they carried out in the name of holding a historic free and fair election. Then they started removing secular and liberal elements, and finally Hindu elements. It is no wonder that every actions of the Caretaker Government are hailed by 4-party alliance. These cleaning actions spread from the secretariat down to Chokidar level in villages.

So law-enforcing agencies made the field clear by rounding off or shunting out the Awami activists. Top administration led by Justice Latifur Rahman, and his able aid Mr. CEC, by shuffling and reshuffling big -petty officials made no stone unturned to set up a full proof administrative structure that will perfectly and skillfully implement the scheme designed by newly formed 6-party alliance [BNP led 4-party + CA + CEE] to topple AL in the general election decisively and overwhelmingly.

Under this backdrop one must judge the allegation of Awami League Chief who termed the Election as a blueprint, previously manipulated by the Caretaker Government. Shaikh Hasina did not deny appreciable turn up of the common voters including large number women. But her allegation is that their verdict has not been reflected; rather true verdict has been replaced by a blueprint election result. If such a blueprint was prepared, world noticed how with 100% efficiency it was implemented befooling all of us. If it turns out to be true, this would be probably the biggest fraud in the history of parliamentary history of election, surpassing the last election of USA.

Any hints of such a manipulated Election Result.

Are there any Indications of Blueprint Election Result?

Honestly speaking NO. There is no sufficient indication that such a manipulated result will determine the fate of Bangladesh. However JanaKantha in its front-page cover story posed a question " Is the Election Result fixed ? The report expressed its apprehension that all indication suggests that a prefixed election result is offing. It also warned persons concerned to take note of it. "

On the other hand AL chief after retiring from Saudi Arabia warned his followers that a blue print election is under way; she urged her workers to keep vigilance over such activities. She also alleged that in this process the Caretaker Government actively encouraging those elements. " However the Awami Chief in her later works did not follow up how to neutralize this move.

But there are sufficient indications that minorities will be debarred physically from attending voting centres. We have given the statistics of events directed against minorities above. Every day columnists of different progressive dailies apprehended this fear. We mention here only a few as illustration(s) (taken only from Sangbad):

Many editorials and post editorials appeared in Sangbad and other influential dailies urging the Caretaker Government and Election Commission to stop this violence and to create a congenial atmosphere so that the women and minorities could come. The daily Sangbad repeatedly in their editorials and post editorials cautioned the Caretaker Government about the large scale atrocities being carried on systematically on the minority communities, they also cautioned about using religion in the election propaganda. I just mention here only 4 editorials:

1. Date 26. 08. 01 : " Keeping the election ahead Minorities are exposed to atrocities and terrorism "
2. Date: 27. 08. 01 " Don't caste your vote- proclaimed Islamic fotwa "
3. Date: 11. 09. 01 " Dont use religion in election propaganda "
4. Date: 25. 09. 01 " Demon of Pseudo-Politics In Bagerhat "

Excepting Dinkal, Inqilab, and Sangram, all prominent dailies publish such articles by important civilians, wrote editorials depicting the grave situation. But our caretaker government was then busy in giving final shape to their blueprint. Minority girls were crying, women were violated, houses burnt, wealth looted - they have no time to look into those silly thing, they were busy how to install BNP led 4-pary alliance to power.

[ In Part II we will bring in some citation of inhuman post election atrocities on minorities and post election analysis. ]